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Thursday 17 July 2014

UFC Dublin: Predictions

by Alex Dillon @_AlexDillon_


By now I am sure that you all know the UFC will be returning to Ireland on Saturday night, if you don't then you must have been locked in a dark room with no internet for the past 4 months. As with all the UFC events we have broken down the card and I have predicted how the event will go. Please read below for a full breakdown of the main card as well as predictions for who will win the prelim fights.

Featherweight: Conor McGregor (14-2, 2-0 UFC) vs Diego Brandao (18-9, 4-2 UFC)

The main event, the return of the notorious one: Conor McGregor. Having not fought since defeating Max Holloway last August in Boston, McGregor has been sitting on the sidelines rehabilitating his knee whilst still creating hype and being talked about by almost everyone.

McGregor burst into the mainstream with a scintillating KO over Marcus Brimage in his debut 17 months ago now and ever since it’s been nothing but maximum exposure for the Dublin man. He received the blackout treatment in Boston fighting on the prelims, dominated Max Holloway despite injuring his knee during the fight and there is a huge belief from himself that its only a matter of time before the featherweight gold is around his waist.

This fight was originally meant to be somewhat of a ‘grudge’ match with Cole Miller before Miller pulled out due to a hand injury so Brandao was drafted in to take his place and offer McGregor a different challenge.

Brandao has had an up and down UFC career since winning The Ultimate Fighter, he had a 3 fight win streak snapped by featherweight contender Dustin Poirier back in December, which to be honest, was an all around bad experience for him as he missed weight and also threatened to stab Poirier so it’s likely a time he’ll want to put behind him. Brandao’s head has been known to get the better of him but when he’s on fire, he is on fire and brings a significant threat to McGregor that Miller probably didn’t. The other problem with Brandao is that he tends to ‘gas’ as the fight goes on and McGregor is a machine so if his cardio isn’t up to scratch, its game over for Brandao. He’s recently moved from Jackson’s MMA to San Antonio to focus more on his BJJ which he says has benefited him and his preparation for this fight. We’ll see come fight night how prepared he is and if he really has put the past behind him.

There are arguments from all sorts of fans regarding Conor McGregor, ‘’McGregor’s the real deal’’ ‘’McGregors overhyped, never winning a title’’ One thing’s for sure though, everyone will tune in Saturday night and rightfully so, I expect McGregor to come out and dictate the fight from the off and put on an excellent performance, he’s said himself that’s what he needs to do and it’ll happen.

Win this in spectacular fashion and he’ll likely face Dustin Poirier next to elevate him further towards a title shot. Wherever this fight ends up it favours McGregor, he’ll be on Brandao from the off his skills are too much for this opponent. McGregor's too slick, too fast, too technical and too good for Brandao and I firmly believe we’ll see an even better Conor McGregor come fight night.

Prediction: McGregor via TKO

 

Welterweight: Gunnar Nelson (12-0-1, 3-0 UFC) vs Zak Cummings (17-3, 2-0 UFC) 

This co-main event was originally meant to feature Ryan LaFlare instead of Zak Cummings but an injury forced LaFlare out so Cummings was drafted in to fill the void. In many fans eyes, highly touted prospect Nelson hasn’t had the opportunity to really put a marker on the Welterweight due to injuries and activity but he is without doubt, a future contender.

Cummings has gone 2-0 since officially signing with the UFC after his stint on TUF 17 and has showed promise of his own with his last win coming as recent as May. Even though Cummings is a late replacement, the fascinating thing about this fight is that they are both legitimate submission fighters, although Cummings has the better wrestling so maybe we will see Nelson’s wrestling tested and subsequently see him go into deep waters.

Nelson may have had a layoff but his last outing at UFC Fight Night in London back in March proved that the time out of the cage didn’t really mean anything as he pulled out an emphatic submission victory in the 1st round. What’s more exciting about this fight is that Nelson trains alongside the main event man Conor McGregor under the tutelage of John Kavanagh at SBGi and is a massive fan favourite in Ireland and rightfully so as so far he’s shown he’s every bit of a contender just like his team mate. Regardless of Cummings wrestling pedigree, I see Nelson getting through this comfortably and with a finish.

Prediction: Nelson via Submission


Flyweight: Brad Pickett (24-8, 4-3 UFC) vs Ian McCall (12-4-1, 1-2-1 UFC)

This flyweight battle was originally scheduled for UFC London back in March but McCall pulled out through injury and was subsequently replaced by newly signed Neil Seery. The fight with Seery was Pickett’s first fight at Flyweight since the cut down from Bantamweight and in many fans eye’s he didn’t impress. Maybe it was because many believed he would steam through Seery and that he had an off day. In my opinion I believe Seery was and still is underrated and gave Pickett as good as he got that night. We’ll soon see in this fight if Pickett can handle the cut at flyweight and impress on Saturday night.

Ian McCall hasn’t had the best career so far in the UFC after coming in as ‘the best flyweight in the world’ he too has failed to live up to the hype when it comes to the big fights so this makes for a really interesting matchup.

Up until the announcement that Mighty Mouse would defend his belt against Chris Cariaso at UFC 177, both of these fighters probably believed the winner of their fight would go on to challenge MM for the title so it remains to be seen how they both treat this fight coming in now knowing that a title shot won’t happen straight away.

My issue with McCall is that he has been quite inactive, last fighting a year ago and has had his own personal issues outside of the octagon and Pickett will be out to prove a point. Personal issues and inactivity aside, Pickett is the better fighter and I expect him to come through this fight with a good performance.

Prediction: Pickett via TKO


Lightweight: Norman Parke (19-2-1, 2-0-1 UFC) vs Naoyuki Kotani (33-10-7, 0-2 UFC)

In his last outing in the UFC, TUF Smashes winner Norman Parke was unlucky to come away with just a draw and really should be 3-0 in what has been a promising UFC career so far. His opponent Kotani, has never won in the UFC but is currently riding a 13-0 win streak and boasts 25 wins via submission. With that in mind, it’s more than likely that Parke will deploy his favoured game plan of grinding down his opponents and using the clinch to his benefit. Kotani poses a risk with his BJJ but Parke should pick up the win here.

Prediction: Parke via Decision

 

Fight Pass Prelims

 

Light Heavyweight: Ilir Latifi (8-3, 1-1 UFC) vs Chris Dempsey (10-1, 0-0 UFC)
Prediction: Latifi via Submission

Flyweight: Neil Seery (13-10, 0-1 UFC) vs Phil Harris (22-11, 1-2 UFC)
Prediction: Seery via TKO 

Middleweight: Cathal Pendred (13-2-1, 0-0 UFC) vs Mike King (5-0, 0-0 UFC)
Prediction: Pendred via Decision

Middleweight: Tor Troeng (16-5-1, 1-1 UFC) vs Trevor Smith (11-5, 1-2 UFC)
Prediction: Troeng via Submission

Light Heavyweight: Cody Donovan (8-4, 1-2 UFC) vs Nikita Krylov (16-4, 1-2 UFC)
Prediction: Krylov via TKO

Flyweight: Patrick Holohan (9-0-1, 0-0 UFC) vs Josh Sampo (11-3, 1-1 UFC)
Prediction: Holohan via Submission

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